14 Fast Facts

Subscribe to our free weekly newsletter, 14 Fast Facts, the Fox Cities Chamber Regional Partnership’s weekly updates on the world economy, courtesy of “Bowtie Economist” Dr. Elliot Eisenberg.

Here are some examples of what you will read every Monday:

Inflation Inaction – While CPI inflation continues to steadily fall and is only up 4.9% Y-o-Y in April, core inflation remains troublingly high and stubbornly stable. It rose 0.4% M-o-M and 5.5% Y-o-Y. However, because the Fed Funds rate now finally exceeds the inflation rate, the Fed is very unlikely to hike rates anymore (source: FFF Research).

Lovely Labor – April payrolls grew a surprisingly strong 253,000, the unemployment rate fell to a 55-year low of 3.4%, and M-o-M wage growth was reasonably hot at 0.5%. But February and March job growth was reduced by 149,000 jobs, and three-month average employment growth was 222,000 jobs, the weakest since January 2021 (source: FFF Research).

Debt Dilemma – If the recent debt-ceiling bill that passed the House becomes law, it would reduce discretionary spending by $129 billion in FY24 and clip GDP by a half point. If no debt-ceiling deal is reached, government spending will fall overnight by almost 25%, or $125 billion/month, driving us almost immediately into a profoundly deep recession (source: CBO and White House)

Recession Reprieve – The expected recession keeps getting delayed due to continuing pandemic-based economic and behavioral-based distortions. There remains strong pent-up demand for services, Covid induced excess savings still amount to almost $1 trillion, and several sectors of the US economy such as leisure & hospitality, government, education, and arts and entertainment remain below pre-Covid employment levels and thus continue enthusiastically hiring (source: FFF Research)