Here are some examples of what you will read every Monday:

Inflation Inaction – While CPI inflation continues to steadily fall and is only up 4.9% Y-o-Y in April, core inflation remains troublingly high and stubbornly stable. It rose 0.4% M-o-M and 5.5% Y-o-Y. However, because the Fed Funds rate now finally exceeds the inflation rate, the Fed is very unlikely to hike rates anymore (source: FFF Research).

Lovely Labor – April payrolls grew a surprisingly strong 253,000, the unemployment rate fell to a 55-year low of 3.4%, and M-o-M wage growth was reasonably hot at 0.5%. But February and March job growth was reduced by 149,000 jobs, and three-month average employment growth was 222,000 jobs, the weakest since January 2021 (source: FFF Research).

Debt Dilemma – If the recent debt-ceiling bill that passed the House becomes law, it would reduce discretionary spending by $129 billion in FY24 and clip GDP by a half point. If no debt-ceiling deal is reached, government spending will fall overnight by almost 25%, or $125 billion/month, driving us almost immediately into a profoundly deep recession (source: CBO and White House). 

Recession Reprieve – The expected recession keeps getting delayed due to continuing pandemic-based economic and behavioral-based distortions. There remains strong pent-up demand for services, Covid induced excess savings still amount to almost $1 trillion, and several sectors of the US economy such as leisure & hospitality, government, education, and arts and entertainment remain below pre-Covid employment levels and thus continue enthusiastically hiring (source: FFF Research).